Table of Contents
- Executive Summary: Key Takeaways on Romania’s Inflation Outlook
- Current Inflation Snapshot: 2025 Data and Drivers
- Historical Context: Comparing 2025 to the Last Decade
- Key Economic Sectors Most Affected by Inflation
- Government and Central Bank Policies: Official Responses and Strategies
- Legal, Tax, and Compliance Implications for Businesses
- Wages, Purchasing Power, and Household Impact
- Forecast: Inflation Projections for 2025–2030
- Opportunities and Risks for Investors and Businesses
- Official Resources and Data Sources (bnro.ro, mfinante.gov.ro, insse.ro)
- Sources & References
Executive Summary: Key Takeaways on Romania’s Inflation Outlook
Romania’s inflation landscape in 2025 is shaped by a gradual, though uneven, deceleration from the peaks observed in 2022–2023. Following double-digit inflation rates driven by global energy shocks, supply chain disruptions, and domestic fiscal pressures, the country has entered a period of relative stabilization, aided by both national policy interventions and broader European economic trends.
- Recent Events and Key Drivers: The inflation rate in Romania surged above 15% in late 2022, primarily due to energy price hikes and food cost increases. Since then, headline inflation has moderated, with official data showing a year-on-year rate of 5.9% in April 2024, reflecting easing energy prices, tighter monetary policy, and targeted government support schemes (National Institute of Statistics).
- Legislation and Compliance: The Romanian government has enacted several temporary price caps and compensation measures for energy and basic foodstuffs, in line with EU directives on consumer protection and market stability. These interventions, overseen by authorities such as the National Energy Regulatory Authority, are gradually being phased out as market conditions normalize and in compliance with EU competition law.
- Monetary Policy Response: The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has played a pivotal role, raising the policy rate to 7% in 2023 and maintaining a cautious stance in 2024 to anchor inflation expectations. The NBR’s latest forecasts project inflation to fall within the 4–5% range by end-2025, approaching but still above its medium-term target (National Bank of Romania).
- Key Statistics: Core inflation remains elevated, especially in services and some non-energy goods, though the pace of price increases is slowing. Wage growth and fiscal policy—particularly government spending and deficit management—pose ongoing risks to price stability (Ministry of Finance).
- Outlook for 2025 and Beyond: Inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory, converging gradually toward the NBR’s 2.5%±1pp target by 2026–2027. However, risks persist from global commodity volatility, domestic fiscal pressures, and labor market tightness. Sustained policy coordination and structural reforms will be crucial to achieving lasting price stability and compliance with EU convergence criteria.
In summary, Romania’s inflation in 2025 reflects a transition from crisis-driven peaks toward more sustainable, though still elevated, levels. The interplay of government measures, monetary policy, and compliance with EU standards will remain central to the inflation outlook in the coming years.
Current Inflation Snapshot: 2025 Data and Drivers
Romania’s inflation dynamics in 2025 reflect a complex interplay of domestic policy responses, external economic pressures, and structural factors. After peaking in 2022 at 13.8%, the annual inflation rate has steadily declined, reaching 5.9% year-on-year in May 2025, according to the most recent data published by the National Institute of Statistics. This marked deceleration aligns with the National Bank of Romania’s (NBR) multi-year monetary tightening strategy, aimed at reining in inflationary expectations.
Key drivers of the 2025 inflation trend include the moderation of energy prices, stabilization of food costs, and a gradual dissipation of global supply chain disruptions. In particular, regulated energy price caps—extended by the Romanian government through 2024 and into 2025—have played a significant role in tempering headline inflation, despite ongoing volatility in international energy markets. The National Bank of Romania has maintained its policy rate at 7.00% since January 2024, signaling a cautious stance amid persistent core inflationary pressures.
Legislative and compliance measures have also shaped the inflation landscape. Amendments to the Energy Law no. 123/2012, enacted in late 2023, extended price caps on household and small business energy tariffs, a move closely monitored for compliance by the National Energy Regulatory Authority. Furthermore, changes to the VAT regime—such as the reversion of the VAT rate for certain foodstuffs to 9%—have contributed to the stabilization of consumer prices.
Despite these efforts, underlying inflation remains elevated relative to the NBR’s medium-term target of 2.5% ±1 percentage point. Persistent wage growth, robust domestic demand, and inflationary spillovers from neighboring economies continue to pose challenges. The NBR’s May 2025 inflation report projects inflation will average 5.7% for the year, before gradually converging toward the upper bound of the target range by 2026, contingent on continued fiscal discipline and the normalization of energy markets.
Looking forward, the inflation outlook hinges on several factors: the trajectory of global commodity prices, further fiscal consolidation measures, and Romania’s ongoing compliance with EU fiscal and regulatory standards. The NBR emphasizes the necessity of prudent macroeconomic management and regulatory vigilance to ensure price stability in the medium term National Bank of Romania.
Historical Context: Comparing 2025 to the Last Decade
Inflation in Romania has undergone significant fluctuations over the past decade, shaped by both domestic developments and external shocks. Between 2015 and 2018, the country experienced relatively moderate inflation, with annual rates generally staying below 4%. This period was supported by robust economic growth, low global commodity prices, and the alignment of fiscal and monetary policies with European Union standards. However, starting in 2018, inflationary pressures began to mount, driven by wage increases, higher energy prices, and expansionary fiscal measures. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics, the annual inflation rate peaked at 4.6% in 2018 before gradually moderating in the subsequent two years.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 disrupted this trend, initially causing a brief dip in inflation due to decreased demand, followed by a sharp rebound as pandemic-related restrictions eased. The global surge in energy and food prices beginning in 2021, compounded by supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine, pushed annual inflation to double-digit levels by 2022 and 2023. The National Bank of Romania reported that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate reached 16.4% at its peak in November 2022.
In response, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) implemented a series of monetary tightening measures, raising the key policy rate from 1.25% in late 2021 to 7.00% by early 2023. The government also introduced targeted support schemes to cushion the impact of energy costs on households and businesses, in line with European Commission recommendations on compliance with state aid and competition law (European Commission).
Entering 2025, inflation has decelerated yet remains above the NBR’s 2.5% ±1 percentage point target band. The latest projections from the National Bank of Romania anticipate inflation averaging around 5.7% in 2025, reflecting persistent core price pressures, especially in services and food. The NBR emphasizes that risks remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, wage adjustments, and uncertainties in energy markets.
Looking ahead, most forecasts expect a gradual normalization of inflation rates as the effects of prior shocks fade and monetary policy remains restrictive. However, structural challenges—including labor market imbalances and fiscal consolidation commitments under the EU’s post-pandemic recovery framework—will influence both compliance efforts and inflation dynamics over the next several years.
Key Economic Sectors Most Affected by Inflation
Inflation continues to be a defining factor for Romania’s economic landscape in 2025, with tangible impacts across key sectors such as energy, food, construction, and transport. The persistent upward pressure on consumer prices, driven by both external shocks and internal dynamics, has necessitated regulatory adjustments and policy interventions from national authorities. According to the latest data released by the National Institute of Statistics, Romania’s annual inflation rate stood at 5.9% in May 2025, reflecting a gradual deceleration from the double-digit peaks seen in 2022–2023 but remaining significantly above the Eurozone average.
- Energy Sector: The volatility in global energy markets, exacerbated by supply disruptions and geopolitical instability, has translated into elevated energy prices domestically. The Romanian government extended price capping measures for electricity and natural gas, aimed at protecting households and certain industrial consumers, through Emergency Ordinance no. 119/2022, with further amendments implemented in 2024 and 2025 to ensure compliance with evolving EU frameworks (Ministry of Energy). These interventions have offered partial relief but have also added fiscal pressures and regulatory complexity.
- Food and Agriculture: Food prices have remained stubbornly high due to increased input costs, climate-related disruptions, and supply chain bottlenecks. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has reported continued price growth for staples such as bread, dairy, and meat, despite targeted support measures for producers and efforts to streamline distribution networks.
- Construction and Real Estate: The construction sector has faced persistent inflationary pressures, with the National Institute of Statistics documenting above-average increases in construction materials, labor, and financing costs. This trend has affected both public infrastructure projects and private real estate developments, leading to project delays and renegotiations of contracts.
- Transport and Logistics: Rising fuel prices and increased operational costs have impacted the transport sector, according to the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure. Although some stabilization is anticipated as global supply chains adjust, high inflation has contributed to elevated tariffs for freight and passenger services.
Looking ahead, the National Bank of Romania projects a gradual moderation of inflation through 2025–2026, contingent on the easing of external shocks and continued fiscal and monetary discipline. Nevertheless, risks remain elevated, particularly for sectors exposed to imported energy and raw materials. Ongoing regulatory compliance and adaptation will be essential for businesses operating in Romania’s most inflation-sensitive industries.
Government and Central Bank Policies: Official Responses and Strategies
Romania’s government and central bank have faced significant challenges managing inflationary pressures since the global shocks of 2020–2022, with persistent volatility continuing into 2025. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) remains the principal authority for monetary policy, tasked with price stability and inflation targeting. Throughout 2024 and into 2025, the NBR has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the key policy rate at historically elevated levels after a series of hikes in 2022 and 2023. The policy rate stood at 7.00% as of early 2025, a signal of the central bank’s commitment to containing inflation and anchoring expectations National Bank of Romania.
The government, in parallel, has enacted several fiscal measures to support vulnerable populations and mitigate the impact of elevated prices, especially for energy and basic foodstuffs. Temporary price caps on gas and electricity, introduced after the 2022 energy crisis, have been gradually phased out, but targeted subsidies and compensation schemes remain in place for low-income households. Legislation introduced in 2023 and extended into 2025 aims to balance fiscal discipline with social protection, in compliance with broader EU fiscal rules and Romania’s commitments under the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility Ministry of Finance.
On the compliance side, both monetary and fiscal authorities have coordinated to reinforce macroeconomic stability. The NBR continues to monitor inflation drivers—such as food, fuel, and administered prices—while communicating transparently with the public and market participants. The central bank’s official inflation forecasts, published quarterly, project a gradual slowdown in headline inflation: from an annual average of over 10% in 2022, to 8.7% at end-2023, and further down to the 4–5% range expected by mid-to-late 2025, assuming no new external shocks National Bank of Romania.
- The 2024–2025 monetary policy stance remains restrictive, reflecting the risk of persistent core inflation and tight labor markets.
- Fiscal policy is guided by a medium-term strategy aiming to reduce the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2026, in line with EU Stability and Growth Pact requirements Ministry of Finance.
- Enhanced coordination between the Ministry of Finance and NBR is expected as Romania prepares for euro adoption, a process contingent on sustained price and fiscal stability.
Looking ahead, the outlook for inflation in Romania depends on both domestic policy discipline and external developments, particularly energy prices and global supply chains. The authorities remain vigilant, with contingency plans in place to adjust policy levers as necessary, aiming to restore inflation to the 2.5% ±1% target band in the medium term.
Legal, Tax, and Compliance Implications for Businesses
Inflation trends in Romania have significant legal, tax, and compliance implications for businesses operating in the country. Following a period of elevated price growth in 2022 and 2023, Romania entered 2025 with a moderated, yet still above-target, inflation environment. According to the National Bank of Romania, the annual inflation rate stood at approximately 6.6% in early 2025, after peaking at over 16% in 2022. The central bank has outlined a gradual disinflation path, targeting a return to its 2.5% ±1 percentage point corridor in the medium term, but persistent risks remain due to wage pressures, energy price volatility, and fiscal imbalances.
From a legal and compliance perspective, inflationary pressures directly affect contract law and price adjustment clauses. Businesses must ensure that contracts—particularly those with long durations—include robust mechanisms for price indexation or renegotiation to remain compliant with Romanian Civil Code provisions on unforeseeable events and contractual balance. Failure to adapt may expose companies to litigation or claims of unfair commercial practices.
Taxation is also impacted by inflation. The Ministry of Finance has maintained the standard VAT rate at 19%, but rising prices inflate the nominal tax base, potentially increasing the effective tax burden on both businesses and consumers. Additionally, legal thresholds for micro-enterprise regimes, excise duties, and personal income tax brackets are periodically revised to account for inflation, requiring careful monitoring and compliance adjustments. Businesses should track legislative updates, as non-compliance with updated thresholds or tax rates can result in penalties.
Labor law compliance is under particular scrutiny as the government periodically increases the minimum wage to offset cost-of-living pressures. The Ministry of Labour and Social Solidarity announced that, as of January 2025, the gross minimum wage increased to 3,700 lei per month. Companies must update payroll systems and employment contracts accordingly. Failure to comply with wage regulations can lead to significant sanctions and reputational risks.
Looking forward, while the National Bank of Romania forecasts a steady decline in inflation through 2026, uncertainties persist regarding external shocks, fiscal discipline, and wage policies. Businesses are advised to incorporate inflation scenarios into their risk management and compliance frameworks, regularly review contract terms, and monitor regulatory updates to maintain full legal and tax compliance in a dynamic inflationary environment.
Wages, Purchasing Power, and Household Impact
Romania’s inflation trajectory has significant implications for wages, purchasing power, and overall household welfare in 2025 and the near future. After peaking at double-digit rates in 2022, inflation has gradually moderated but remains above the medium-term target set by the central bank. According to the National Bank of Romania, the annual inflation rate decelerated to around 7.6% by the end of 2023 and is forecasted to continue decreasing, with projections indicating a rate near 4.8% by the end of 2024 and a possible return to the 2.5% ±1 percentage point target range by late 2025.
In response to persistent inflation, wage dynamics have been robust. Data from the National Institute of Statistics shows nominal net average earnings increased by approximately 15% year-on-year in early 2024, outpacing headline inflation and offering some compensation for the earlier decline in purchasing power. Sectors such as information technology, finance, and construction have witnessed the highest wage growth, partly driven by labor shortages and sector-specific demand.
However, despite nominal wage hikes, real wage growth was negative for much of 2022 and only turned positive as inflation moderated in late 2023 and early 2024. Households experienced a squeeze in purchasing power, particularly among lower-income groups and pensioners, as essential goods and services—especially energy, food, and housing—saw some of the steepest price increases. To mitigate social impact, the government enacted targeted support measures, including regulated energy price caps and increases in the minimum wage, as well as adjustments to social benefits and pensions in compliance with the Government Decision no. 900/2023 and subsequent legislative updates.
- Minimum wage: Increased to RON 3,300 gross from October 2023, with further scheduled adjustments under government policy.
- Pensions: Indexed in January 2024, with further recalculations planned to align with inflation and the new pension law reforms.
- Social support: Temporary subsidies and vouchers for vulnerable households, extended through 2025 as a compliance measure with EU recommendations.
Looking ahead, the National Bank of Romania forecasts further disinflation throughout 2025, though external risks—such as volatile energy prices and geopolitical tensions—could affect the pace. Real wage growth is expected to consolidate as inflation aligns closer to target, supporting a gradual recovery in household purchasing power. Nevertheless, continued vigilance is warranted to ensure that wage increases remain consistent with productivity and do not reignite inflationary pressures.
Forecast: Inflation Projections for 2025–2030
Romania’s inflation landscape has undergone marked shifts in recent years, heavily influenced by both domestic policy measures and external shocks. After peaking at double-digit levels in 2022, annual inflation moderated but remained above the target set by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) throughout 2023 and into 2024. As of early 2025, the NBR’s official projections indicate a continued, albeit gradual, disinflation process, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) expected to decline toward—but not fully reach—the bank’s 2.5% ±1 percentage point target range by 2026.
Key drivers behind recent inflation included energy price liberalization, supply chain disruptions, and increases in food and utility costs. Policy interventions—such as temporary energy price caps and government subsidies—helped stabilize costs for households, but these measures are being phased out, placing renewed focus on underlying inflationary pressures. According to the NBR’s latest National Bank of Romania Inflation Report, headline inflation is projected to average approximately 4.7% in 2025, gradually falling to around 3.2% by 2027, presuming no new exogenous shocks.
The government remains committed to fiscal consolidation in line with the European Union’s recommendations, aiming to reduce the budget deficit and public debt as required by the Maastricht criteria. These obligations are influencing both tax policy and public spending, with potential indirect effects on inflation. Legislative compliance with EU directives—such as those concerning energy market regulation and fiscal transparency—will also shape inflationary dynamics in the coming years. Romania’s adherence to the Stability and Growth Pact (European Commission) remains a cornerstone of this process.
Risks to the forecast remain on the upside, notably from ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, global commodity price volatility, and wage pressures in tight labor markets. However, the NBR has signaled a readiness to tighten monetary policy further if inflation expectations become unanchored or if exchange rate volatility transmits additional price pressures into the economy.
- 2025 CPI Inflation Projection: ~4.7% (NBR baseline)
- 2026–2027 Trend: Gradual decrease toward 3.2%–3.5%
- Key Risks: Energy prices, fiscal slippage, labor market developments
- Policy Compliance: Fiscal consolidation, EU directives, monetary vigilance
In summary, Romania’s inflation outlook for 2025–2030 is characterized by a slow return to target levels, contingent on disciplined fiscal and monetary policy, structural reforms, and stability in external conditions. Ongoing compliance with EU frameworks and domestic legislation will play a critical role in anchoring expectations and ensuring medium-term price stability.
Opportunities and Risks for Investors and Businesses
Romania’s inflation trajectory in 2025 presents a nuanced landscape of opportunities and risks for investors and businesses. After peaking at 16.4% in November 2022, inflation moderated significantly, reaching 5.9% by the end of 2023, and further easing to 5.1% in May 2024. The moderation reflects tighter monetary policy, normalization of energy prices, and the gradual dissipation of supply chain disruptions. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) anticipates headline inflation to continue its downward trend, projecting a rate of 4.7% by the end of 2025. However, this path is subject to several influencing factors, both domestic and external National Bank of Romania.
Key legislative and policy developments are shaping the inflation outlook. The government has extended temporary caps on energy prices for households and certain businesses through at least March 2025, aiming to shield consumers from volatility in global energy markets. These interventions have contributed to lower headline inflation, but may pose fiscal risks and affect market pricing signals in the medium term. Fiscal consolidation measures are also underway to reduce Romania’s budget deficit, in line with commitments to the European Union’s Excessive Deficit Procedure. Tighter public spending and improved tax compliance are expected to act as disinflationary forces but could moderate growth and consumer demand Ministry of Finance.
For investors and businesses, inflation trends entail both opportunities and risks. Easing inflation supports consumer purchasing power and stabilizes operational costs, creating a more predictable environment for planning and investment. Sectors such as retail, real estate, and manufacturing may benefit from decreased cost pressures and improved demand. However, inflation risks remain due to potential external shocks, such as renewed energy price spikes, geopolitical uncertainties, and volatility in the exchange rate. The NBR’s cautious monetary stance—currently maintaining the policy rate at 7.0%—signals an ongoing commitment to price stability, though further loosening will be data-dependent National Bank of Romania.
- Headline inflation: 5.1% (May 2024), projected 4.7% (end-2025)
- Policy rate: 7.0% (as of June 2024)
- Energy price caps extended to March 2025
- Continued EU fiscal oversight and deficit reduction measures
Looking beyond 2025, the inflation outlook remains contingent on domestic fiscal discipline, the evolution of regulated energy prices, and external conditions. Prudent risk management and scenario planning are recommended for investors and businesses operating in Romania’s evolving macroeconomic environment.
Official Resources and Data Sources (bnro.ro, mfinante.gov.ro, insse.ro)
Romania’s inflation trajectory in 2025 continues to be shaped by a complex interplay of domestic policies, global economic pressures, and compliance with European Union (EU) frameworks. The National Bank of Romania (NBR) remains the principal authority overseeing monetary policy and reporting on inflation developments, while the Ministry of Finance and the National Institute of Statistics (INS) provide the official fiscal data and statistical analyses underpinning economic planning.
As of early 2025, headline inflation in Romania has moderated from the peaks observed in 2022 and 2023, largely due to the stabilization of energy prices, improved agricultural output, and monetary tightening measures implemented over the preceding years. The NBR’s most recent inflation report projects a gradual return to the target corridor of 2.5% ±1 percentage point, with annual inflation forecasted at approximately 4.7% for the first semester of 2025, before trending lower in the latter half of the year. Key factors behind this trajectory include the moderation of imported goods prices and the fading base effects of previous energy shocks, though risks remain from persistent service sector price increases and potential wage pressures.
Recent legislative developments, such as the continued application of the price cap on specific energy products and adjustments to excise duties and VAT rates, have also contributed to the inflation profile. These measures, implemented to shield consumers from volatile utility prices, are detailed in official government releases and have required ongoing compliance monitoring by the Ministry of Finance and regulatory authorities. The NBR, in its inflation reports, highlights the importance of fiscal discipline and alignment with EU recommendations to anchor inflation expectations and support economic stability.
The INS remains the primary source for monthly and annual inflation indices, providing detailed breakdowns of consumer price trends by sector. According to their most recent data, price increases in 2025 have been most pronounced in food products and certain services, while non-food goods have shown more subdued movements. The consistent publication of these statistics ensures transparency and supports informed policy responses.
Looking ahead, the medium-term outlook suggests that Romania’s inflation will continue to converge toward the NBR’s target, contingent on prudent fiscal management, stable external conditions, and effective policy coordination. Nevertheless, vigilance is warranted regarding potential external shocks, exchange rate volatility, and domestic wage developments, all of which could influence the inflation path in 2025 and beyond.
- National Bank of Romania
- Ministry of Finance
- National Institute of Statistics
