Table of Contents
- Executive Summary: Key Insights on Cambodia’s Inflation
- Macroeconomic Context: Cambodia’s Economy in 2025
- Historical Overview: Inflation Patterns Since 2020
- Key Drivers: Domestic and Global Factors Shaping Inflation
- Official Data: Latest Statistics and Government Projections (source: nbc.gov.kh, mef.gov.kh)
- Impact Analysis: Effects on Households and Businesses
- Law and Taxation: Regulatory Responses and Compliance (source: mef.gov.kh, tax.gov.kh)
- Policy Measures: National Bank and Government Interventions
- Future Outlook: Inflation Scenarios for 2025–2030
- Strategic Recommendations: Navigating Inflation in Cambodia
- Sources & References
Executive Summary: Key Insights on Cambodia’s Inflation
Cambodia’s inflation trends in 2025 are shaped by ongoing macroeconomic adjustments, policy responses, and global market dynamics. The latest data indicate that inflation remains moderate, following a period of volatility driven by external shocks in 2022 and 2023. According to the National Bank of Cambodia, the annual inflation rate was estimated to average around 2.8% in 2024, with projections for 2025 suggesting a similar trajectory, provided global commodity prices and supply chains remain stable.
Key developments influencing inflation include government interventions to stabilize fuel prices and manage food security, which have been critical given Cambodia’s dependency on imports for both sectors. In 2024, the Ministry of Commerce enacted temporary tariff adjustments and price monitoring mechanisms to counteract imported inflation, in compliance with national price stability objectives and in alignment with the Law on Consumer Protection. These measures are complemented by monetary policy tools implemented by the National Bank of Cambodia, emphasizing liquidity management and prudent credit growth to mitigate inflationary pressures.
On the compliance front, the government continues to enforce regulations under the Law on Price Controls and related consumer protection laws. Businesses are subject to price reporting requirements and anti-profiteering provisions, with enforcement coordinated between the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Regular market inspections and penalties for violations have contributed to a generally stable retail price environment, particularly for essential goods.
Key statistics for 2025 indicate that inflation is expected to remain within the central bank’s target range of 2%–3%, assuming no major external disruptions. The National Bank of Cambodia projects that sustained policy vigilance and continued recovery in tourism and manufacturing will support macroeconomic stability. Risks do persist, however, including potential spikes in energy prices and exchange rate volatility, which could elevate inflation above forecast if not carefully managed.
Looking ahead to the next few years, Cambodia’s inflation outlook is cautiously optimistic. The government’s proactive regulatory stance and the central bank’s commitment to price stability are expected to anchor inflation expectations. Continued investment in infrastructure and diversification of import sources are also likely to enhance economic resilience, further supporting stable inflation trends through 2026 and beyond.
Macroeconomic Context: Cambodia’s Economy in 2025
Inflation trends in Cambodia have remained a focal point for policymakers and market participants as the nation navigates the post-pandemic recovery and shifting global economic conditions. Following a period of elevated inflation in 2022—largely driven by rising global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions—Cambodia has experienced a notable moderation in consumer price pressures through 2023 and 2024. According to the National Bank of Cambodia, annual headline inflation averaged approximately 2.1% in 2023, a significant decline from the 5.3% peak seen in 2022. This downward trajectory continued into early 2025, with inflation stabilizing below the 3% threshold, aligning with the central bank’s medium-term target.
A combination of domestic policy measures and favorable external factors contributed to this trend. The stabilization of global fuel and food prices, coupled with the Cambodian riel’s relative stability against the US dollar, has helped contain imported inflation. Additionally, the government’s phased reduction of pandemic-era fiscal support, alongside prudent monetary policies implemented by the National Bank of Cambodia, has reinforced price stability. The central bank continues to monitor liquidity and credit growth through regulatory tools, including reserve requirement adjustments and macroprudential guidance, in line with the Law on the Organization and Conduct of the National Bank of Cambodia (National Bank of Cambodia).
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025 and the next few years, inflation is projected to remain moderate, barring major external shocks. The Ministry of Economy and Finance anticipates consumer price growth to hover between 2.5% and 3% per annum through 2027, supported by stable food supplies, improving logistics infrastructure, and ongoing government monitoring of key commodity prices. Nonetheless, risks persist, including potential volatility in global energy markets, climate-related disruptions affecting agricultural output, and evolving geopolitical tensions that could impact import costs.
From a compliance and policy perspective, Cambodian authorities have reiterated their commitment to price surveillance and market regulation. The Ministry of Commerce enforces price controls on essential goods during periods of volatility and collaborates with other ministries to ensure the stability of supply chains (Ministry of Commerce). Furthermore, the National Bank of Cambodia continues to enhance its statistical and reporting frameworks to support timely policy interventions, contributing to macroeconomic stability as Cambodia seeks to foster sustainable growth and investor confidence in the coming years.
Historical Overview: Inflation Patterns Since 2020
Cambodia’s inflation trajectory since 2020 has reflected both global and domestic pressures, shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-chain disruptions, and commodity price volatility. In 2020, inflation averaged 2.9%, primarily driven by food price increases and pandemic-related logistical challenges. The subsequent year, 2021, saw inflation moderate slightly to 2.9%, supported by a gradual economic recovery and stabilization in global oil prices. However, underlying risks remained due to persistent uncertainties in the external environment.
Inflationary pressures intensified in 2022, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaking at an annual average of 5.3%. This spike was attributed to surges in global fuel and fertilizer prices following geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The government responded by implementing targeted fiscal measures, including temporary fuel subsidies and strategic reserve releases to mitigate the pass-through effects on domestic prices. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) maintained a prudent monetary policy stance, monitoring liquidity conditions and exchange rate stability to counteract inflationary risks (National Bank of Cambodia).
In 2023, inflation began to ease, falling to around 2.2% by year-end as global commodity prices stabilized and domestic supply chains normalized. The NBC’s continued commitment to exchange rate management and macroeconomic stability contributed to this moderation. The Ministry of Economy and Finance reinforced compliance with fiscal discipline, ensuring that government spending did not trigger demand-pull inflation (Ministry of Economy and Finance).
Recent data for early 2025 indicate that inflation remains contained, hovering between 2.0% and 2.5%. This favorable trend is underpinned by subdued international oil prices, a steady recovery in the tourism and manufacturing sectors, and cautious monetary policy. The government continues to monitor price developments closely and enforces compliance with consumer protection regulations to prevent unjustified price hikes in essential goods (General Department of Consumer Protection, Competition and Fraud Repression).
Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain moderate over the next few years, barring significant external shocks. The NBC projects inflation will stay within the target range of 2-3% through 2026, assuming continued macroeconomic stability and adherence to prudent fiscal and monetary policies. Close coordination among regulatory authorities is anticipated to further strengthen compliance and enhance resilience against potential inflationary pressures.
Key Drivers: Domestic and Global Factors Shaping Inflation
Cambodia’s inflation trends in 2025 reflect a complex interplay between domestic dynamics and global economic forces. After a period of volatility in 2022 and 2023, when headline inflation spiked due to global energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions, 2024 and early 2025 have seen a relative stabilization. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) reported that year-on-year inflation eased to around 2.0% in early 2025, down from peaks above 5% in 2022. This moderation is attributed to both external and internal factors.
- Global Commodity Prices: Cambodia, as a net importer of fuel and raw materials, remains highly susceptible to fluctuations in international commodity markets. The easing of global oil prices since late 2023 has directly alleviated transportation and production costs, translating to lower consumer price pressures domestically. Projections from the National Bank of Cambodia expect external price stability to persist in 2025, barring major geopolitical disruptions.
- Exchange Rate Stability: The de facto dollarization of Cambodia’s economy has helped cushion imported inflation, as the riel’s value remains anchored to the US dollar. The NBC continues to monitor the riel–US dollar exchange rate closely, deploying monetary policy tools to maintain confidence and limit currency-driven price volatility.
- Food Prices and Agriculture Output: Domestic food prices are a key driver, accounting for over 40% of the Consumer Price Index basket. Favorable weather conditions and improved rice harvests in late 2024 contributed to lower food inflation in early 2025. However, the NBC notes periodic risks from climate events and global food market fluctuations that could pose upward pressures.
- Regulatory and Tax Policy: The Royal Government of Cambodia has maintained fuel subsidies and reduced certain import duties as temporary inflation mitigation measures. Furthermore, compliance with new tax and customs regulations, overseen by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, aims to enhance revenue without stoking inflationary pressures.
- Wage and Demand Dynamics: Moderate growth in wages and private consumption has supported demand without triggering overheating. The minimum wage in the garment sector was raised in 2024, but productivity gains and stable input costs have helped keep pass-through effects contained.
Looking ahead, the inflation outlook for Cambodia in 2025 and the subsequent years remains cautiously optimistic. The NBC forecasts headline inflation to remain within the targeted range of 2–3%, contingent upon continued global stability and prudent domestic policy implementation. Nonetheless, vigilance is warranted regarding global commodity shocks, exchange rate movements, and climate-related agricultural risks, which could reignite inflationary pressures if left unchecked (National Bank of Cambodia).
Official Data: Latest Statistics and Government Projections (source: nbc.gov.kh, mef.gov.kh)
Inflation trends in Cambodia have experienced notable fluctuations in recent years, influenced by both external and domestic factors. According to the latest official data published by the National Bank of Cambodia, the annual inflation rate averaged approximately 2.0% in 2023, reflecting relative price stability following the elevated rates observed during the global commodity price surge of 2022. The moderation in inflation has been attributed to easing global fuel and food prices, as well as prudent monetary and fiscal policies implemented by national authorities.
For 2024 and the outlook into 2025, the government maintains a cautiously optimistic stance. The Ministry of Economy and Finance projects that inflation will remain contained, forecasting a rate of around 2.5% for 2024 and a similar level for 2025, assuming stability in global energy and food markets. Key drivers of inflation are expected to be fluctuations in imported goods prices, domestic demand resumption, and the gradual recovery of the tourism and garment sectors.
Recent regulatory developments have enhanced the government’s capacity to monitor and respond to inflationary pressures. The National Bank of Cambodia continues to reinforce its role in macroeconomic surveillance, emphasizing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. In 2023, the NBC issued updated guidance to financial institutions on liquidity management and prudent lending to mitigate inflation transmission through the credit channel (National Bank of Cambodia). On the fiscal side, the Ministry of Economy and Finance has prioritized targeted subsidies for vulnerable populations to cushion the effects of price increases, in line with the government’s post-pandemic recovery strategy (Ministry of Economy and Finance).
- Headline inflation (2023): 2.0% (NBC)
- Forecast inflation (2024): ~2.5% (MEF)
- Forecast inflation (2025): ~2.5% (MEF)
Looking ahead, both the NBC and MEF stress the importance of vigilant monitoring of external shocks—particularly fuel and commodity prices—as well as the need for continued structural reforms to enhance market efficiency and supply chain resilience. Overall, the inflation outlook for Cambodia in 2025 and the near term is stable, with risks primarily emanating from unpredictable global economic conditions.
Impact Analysis: Effects on Households and Businesses
Cambodia’s inflation trends in 2025 continue to shape the economic environment for both households and businesses. After peaking during the global commodity price surge of 2022, inflation in Cambodia moderated throughout 2023 and 2024, as global supply chain disruptions eased and fuel prices stabilized. According to the National Bank of Cambodia, headline inflation averaged around 2.2% in 2024, down from a high of over 5% in late 2022. As of early 2025, inflation remains moderate, with projections by the National Bank of Cambodia and Ministry of Economy and Finance suggesting a rate of 2–2.5% for the year, assuming stable energy and food prices.
For households, even moderate inflation affects real incomes and purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income families. The National Institute of Statistics reports that food, housing, and transport constitute the largest shares of household expenditure. When prices rise, even incrementally, these essentials absorb a greater portion of family budgets, potentially reducing spending on education, healthcare, and other discretionary items. In 2024, food inflation outpaced the general index, which heightened vulnerability among rural and urban poor households. The government responded by expanding targeted social assistance and supporting price monitoring measures, in line with compliance mandates under the Law on Price Controls.
For businesses, inflation affects both input costs and demand. Rising prices for imported raw materials—especially fuel and construction materials—have put pressure on manufacturing and logistics sectors. Many small and medium enterprises (SMEs) report narrowing profit margins, as they are unable to fully pass on increased costs to consumers. Larger enterprises have more flexibility to adjust supply chains and pricing strategies, but persistent inflation can erode competitiveness. To promote compliance and transparency, the National Bank of Cambodia continues to enforce disclosure requirements on pricing and financial reporting, particularly for regulated financial institutions.
Looking forward, inflationary pressures in Cambodia are expected to remain contained, barring external shocks. Prudent fiscal policy, ongoing monitoring by the National Bank of Cambodia, and enhanced enforcement of price control laws are central to this outlook. However, risks persist from global energy markets and climate-related disruptions to local agriculture. Both households and businesses are advised to remain vigilant and adapt to potential fluctuations in the cost of living and operating expenses over the next few years.
Law and Taxation: Regulatory Responses and Compliance (source: mef.gov.kh, tax.gov.kh)
Inflation trends in Cambodia have prompted both fiscal and regulatory responses aimed at maintaining price stability and ensuring compliance with evolving tax and economic policies. As of 2025, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the General Department of Taxation (GDT) continue to monitor inflationary pressures closely, leveraging legislative frameworks and compliance initiatives to mitigate risks associated with rising consumer prices.
Recent macroeconomic data indicate that inflation in Cambodia has remained relatively moderate compared to regional peers, but upward pressures persist due to global energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and domestic factors such as food and fuel costs. According to the national budget law and accompanying fiscal policy statements for 2025, the government projects inflation to average around 3.1% for the year, with targeted interventions to keep it within the 2.5%–3.5% range over the next few years (Ministry of Economy and Finance).
In response to inflationary risks, the MEF has enacted several measures under the 2025 Financial Law to enhance fiscal discipline and strengthen price monitoring mechanisms. These include adjustments to excise taxes on petroleum products, targeted subsidies for essential goods, and increased budget allocations for social safety nets. The government has also reaffirmed its commitment to prudent public debt management and effective expenditure controls as part of its medium-term fiscal framework (Ministry of Economy and Finance).
From a taxation and compliance perspective, the GDT continues to enforce updated regulations for value-added tax (VAT), excise duties, and customs tariffs, which are periodically reviewed to ensure alignment with inflation trends and fiscal policy objectives. In 2025, compliance campaigns have intensified, emphasizing accurate tax reporting and timely remittance, particularly for sectors prone to inflation-driven distortions such as retail, construction, and transport. The GDT’s digital tax administration platform now facilitates real-time monitoring, risk-based audits, and taxpayer education aimed at minimizing evasion and supporting stable revenue collection (General Department of Taxation).
Looking ahead, the regulatory outlook suggests a continued focus on adaptive fiscal policy, robust tax compliance, and targeted interventions to cushion vulnerable groups against inflation. The government’s approach balances inflation containment with growth and social equity, leveraging legal reforms and compliance enforcement as key instruments in maintaining macroeconomic stability through 2025 and the subsequent years.
Policy Measures: National Bank and Government Interventions
In response to evolving inflation trends, Cambodia’s monetary and fiscal authorities have actively implemented policy measures to stabilize prices and sustain economic growth. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC), which serves as the country’s central bank, plays a pivotal role in monitoring inflation and deploying policy tools to address inflationary pressures. In 2023 and 2024, Cambodia witnessed inflation rates moderating from earlier spikes driven by global supply chain disruptions and energy price volatility. The NBC reported that inflation averaged 2.0% in 2023, a decline from 2022, primarily due to lower fuel and food price increases and the stabilization of import costs through currency management interventions (National Bank of Cambodia).
Key policy levers utilized by the NBC include prudent liquidity management, close supervision of the banking sector, and the promotion of riel (KHR) usage to reduce dollarization. The NBC has maintained a cautious approach regarding reserve requirements and liquidity provisions to ensure financial sector stability, while adjusting interventions in the interbank market as necessary. In addition, the government has collaborated with the NBC to manage inflation through targeted subsidies and strategic fuel price controls, especially to protect vulnerable populations from cost-of-living surges (Ministry of Economy and Finance).
On the legislative front, Cambodia has not enacted new anti-inflation laws per se, but the government continues to emphasize transparency in public procurement, tighter fiscal discipline, and improved tax collection. Compliance with these measures is overseen by relevant government agencies to ensure effective disbursement of public resources and mitigate demand-side inflationary risks. The Ministry of Economy and Finance regularly updates budgetary frameworks and inflation forecasts, aiming to align fiscal policy with price stability objectives.
Looking into 2025 and the coming years, official projections suggest inflation will remain contained within the NBC’s target range, barring external shocks such as abrupt commodity price changes or global financial instability. These projections are underpinned by continued vigilance over monetary aggregates, close coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, and ongoing efforts to diversify Cambodia’s economic base to bolster resilience against imported inflation (National Bank of Cambodia). As Cambodia advances its post-pandemic recovery, the effectiveness of policy interventions will be critical in maintaining macroeconomic stability and fostering sustainable growth.
Future Outlook: Inflation Scenarios for 2025–2030
Looking ahead to 2025 and the subsequent years through 2030, Cambodia’s inflation outlook is shaped by both domestic policies and global economic dynamics. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) has maintained a vigilant approach to monetary stability, with inflation remaining relatively contained in recent years despite global economic volatility. In 2023, the inflation rate averaged 2.4%, a marked decrease from the peaks observed in 2022, primarily due to easing international commodity prices and improved supply chains. For 2025, the NBC projects inflation to hover between 2.5% and 3.0%, aligning with its medium-term price stability objectives National Bank of Cambodia.
Key drivers influencing inflation trends through 2030 include fiscal discipline, exchange rate stability, and ongoing reforms to strengthen the financial sector. The Cambodian government continues to implement the Public Financial Management Reform Program (PFMRP), focusing on expenditure control and revenue mobilization, which underpins macroeconomic stability Ministry of Economy and Finance. Additionally, the riel’s steady peg to the US dollar acts as an anchor against imported inflation, especially given Cambodia’s reliance on imported goods and fuel.
Compliance with international standards remains a priority, particularly as Cambodia pursues further integration into regional and global markets. The NBC’s adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for the banking sector enhances transparency and investor confidence, supporting economic resilience against inflationary shocks National Bank of Cambodia. Moreover, new regulations on consumer protection and fair competition, as outlined in the Law on Consumer Protection (2019) and Law on Competition (2021), are expected to improve market efficiency and limit price manipulation over the medium term Cambodia Competition Commission.
However, risks to the inflation outlook persist. Potential volatility in international energy and food prices, climate-related disruptions to agriculture, and uncertainties in global monetary policy could exert upward pressure on consumer prices. The NBC and Ministry of Economy and Finance are closely monitoring these developments and stand ready to adjust policy tools as needed.
Overall, Cambodia’s inflation is expected to remain moderate between 2025 and 2030, with prudent policy frameworks and regulatory reforms providing a buffer against external shocks. Continued vigilance and adaptability will be crucial as the country navigates evolving global economic conditions.
Strategic Recommendations: Navigating Inflation in Cambodia
Cambodia’s inflation landscape in 2025 reflects both the country’s post-pandemic recovery and external vulnerabilities. According to the National Bank of Cambodia, inflation rates stabilized in late 2024 after significant volatility in preceding years, primarily driven by energy prices, logistics disruptions, and imported food costs. The annual inflation rate hovered around 3.0% at the close of 2024, with the central bank projecting similar moderate inflation into 2025, contingent on global commodity markets and regional economic stability.
Regulatory oversight remains active, with the National Bank of Cambodia monitoring price levels and macroeconomic indicators to ensure monetary stability. The government has not introduced price controls but continues to employ targeted fiscal measures—such as subsidies on fuel and staple foods—to buffer vulnerable populations from price shocks. The Ministry of Economy and Finance has also maintained a prudent fiscal stance, aiming to keep the budget deficit in check while supporting economic growth and social protection programs.
Key statistics shaping the 2025 inflation outlook include:
- Headline inflation is projected to average 2.5%–3.2% for 2025, absent major external shocks.
- Food inflation is expected to moderate, as domestic supply chains have largely recovered, though weather-related disruptions remain a risk.
- Import-dependent sectors are sensitive to currency fluctuations and regional trade dynamics, especially vis-à-vis the US dollar and neighboring ASEAN economies.
From a compliance perspective, businesses must continue to adhere to transparent pricing and consumer protection regulations enforced by the Ministry of Commerce. This includes accurate price labeling, fair trade practices, and timely tax reporting. Financial institutions are required by the National Bank of Cambodia to maintain robust risk management frameworks in response to inflationary pressures, particularly in lending and deposit rates.
Looking ahead, inflationary risks in Cambodia are likely to be shaped by external energy prices, climate variability affecting agriculture, and regional economic developments. The broad consensus among Cambodian authorities is that inflation will remain manageable through 2026, provided global volatility is contained and fiscal-monetary coordination remains strong. However, potential global commodity shocks or climate events could prompt renewed inflationary pressures, requiring agile policy responses and ongoing compliance vigilance.
